Maersk Asia Pacific market update (March 2022)

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Global trade faces an uncertain outlook as the Russia-Ukraine situation leads to higher energy prices and a likely drop in economic growth in Europe. In China, a surge in Covid-19 cases, especially of the highly transmittable Omicron variant, is putting further pressure on supply chains reducing trucking capacity and adding to port congestion even as container terminals remain open and working.

This month, we share the latest trends and current challenges. We also explain Maersk’s latest solutions to help you keep cargo moving.

Market Trend 

The Russia-Ukraine situation has made the macroeconomic outlook highly uncertain. Economic data for the first two months of this year had suggested the global economy was set to accelerate as concerns about the impact from the Omicron variant of Covid-19 faded. Instead, the imposition of sanctions by governments on Russia coupled with surging energy prices are likely to have a very significant negative impact, adding to inflationary pressures. How consumers and businesses react to the heightened uncertainty of higher prices and reduced policy support will be key to the outlook for trade. Potential scenarios depend heavily on how the conflict develops, but if energy prices remain at current levels European growth could fall by up to 3% this year, according to analysts. Brent crude hit a 14-year high of $140 per barrel in early March and although prices subsequently fell slightly. Nonetheless most Analysts believe prices will remain elevated for the rest of this year.

The impact on trade flows is difficult to predict. Russian imports and exports constitute about 2% of global volumes for both ocean and air, with a bigger share of around 5% on the Asia-Europe trade and 8% on the intra-Europe trade. Apart from the direct impact from lost, volumes on the Russia trade, we expect a complex redirection of volumes to other regions, in particular reefer and other perishable goods. Higher energy prices, lower consumer demand and volatile financial markets will impact global trade flows but it’s impossible to forecast by how much.

The container shipping industry remained capacity constrained in the first quarter especially from landside disruptions and port bottlenecks that reduced effective vessel capacity. Despite a gradual slowing in spot markets, freight and charter rates remained high. The SCFI index excluding bunker costs was 78% higher in February than a year earlier. The uncertainty over the easing of capacity constraints and equipment make it challenging to predict when freight rates will begin to normalize.

Trending Topic

Covid-19 in China: Local lockdowns and other quarantine measures in response to coronavirus outbreaks in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Qingdao and other cities are creating transport and supply chain bottlenecks even as ports and terminals remain operational. In Shenzhen, Maersk is skipping calls on several services at Chiwan Container Terminal and Yantian International Container Terminal (YICT) to protect schedule reliability as a result of reduced terminal productivity and congestion. We are trying to minimise all delays. Under Maersk’s vessel contingency plan cargo consigned on the Maersk Eureka on the TP2 211N sailing at Chiwan has been delayed to the Maersk Elba 215N sailing; cargo on the AE15 MSC Ingy 211W call at Chiwan has been delayed to the MSC Mirjam 212W sailing; while cargo for the IA1 Merkur Horizon 211N call at YICT has been transferred to the PH3 Evridiki G 213S sailing.

We foresee vessel waiting time will increase at the Yantian and Chiwan terminals. From March 21, container yard opening at Chiwan, Mawan and Shekou container terminals will only be available within four days of a vessel’s estimated time to berth and only after the terminal confirms the advance reservation made by trucking companies for laden containers gate-in.

All depots and warehouses in Shenzhen have re-opened following a week-long lockdown in the city which was lifted on March 20. But landside transportation faces disruption. We foresee a 20% drop in trucking services between Shenzhen and nearby cities due to stricter Covid-19 controls and the need for drivers to have frequent Nucleic Acid tests leading to longer delivery times and higher transport costs.

Haulage services are available at China’s ports including Shanghai, Qingdao and Xiamen but drivers are subject to frequent health checks and must produce a negative NAT report. In Hong Kong, tougher checks and tests on cross-boundary truckers have led to a cut of at least 70% in trucking capacity, which in turn is having a domino effect on the rest of the supply chain.

Please check with you local Maersk representative for the latest information.

Schedule reliability: Vessel delays and port congestion remains a significant problem in US and North Europe. On the US West Coast, Sea-Intelligence forecasts that vessel queues, which dropped to around 66 ships outside Long Beach/Los Angeles in early March due to reduced arrivals from Asia, will climb again from April as the transpacific transit cycle brings more vessels to the West Coast.

Overall, globally, container shipping schedule reliability remains at a very low level. Maersk was once again the most reliable top-14 carrier in January 2022, with schedule reliability of 46.9%, slightly better than a year earlier, according to the latest Sea-Intelligence report in early March. But overall global schedule reliability among the top carriers was at the lowest ever level since Sea-Intelligence started tracking the statistics in 2011.

Ocean Update

• Oceania improvement: Maersk’s schedule reliability from Ocean to Asia hit 41% in January compared with a market average of 20% despite ongoing operational disruptions. But we do expect increased disruption in New Zealand due to rising Omicron cases. We continue to see positive, and increasing, demand for our Eco Delivery product as a wider range of customers choose a greener ocean transport model.


• Key Market Outlook Across Trade Lanes

Air Update

Maersk is introducing a new Zhengzhou-Liege weekly return charter service starting in April to help customers adjust to recent capacity reductions to Europe. The service will provide connections to major China and European cities through our seamless transfer service.

• Australia and New Zealand: Maersk has secured block space from Shanghai to Melbourne and Sydney which offer reliable transit and competitive cost benefits. Freight costs have seen a slight improvement from Shanghai to Oceania this month. Singapore continues to provide better cargo options into Oceania than Hanoi because capacity shortages hold rates at higher levels. Freight rates remain high for Trans-Tasman cargo. The air freight market from Indonesia is stable with improvements in capacity and carrier options.


• Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar: Lower demand in all three countries has led to a slowdown and several airlines have cancelled flights in response. Fuel surcharges may increase in the coming months due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and several airlines have started to apply a war risk surcharge to European and US flights.

Inland Services Update

• Philippines: Yard utilization is at manageable levels. Trucking rates have increased by 6% due to higher oil prices.


• Indonesia: Inland transport demand is expected to peak in April due to Ramadan and a peak season trucking surcharge will be levied, while volumes are expected to fall in May after Ramadan ends. There is expected to be sufficient trucking capacity to cater for inland export, import and domestic overland and inter-island transport during peak season.


• VCM: The Ho Chi Minh City Government will start collecting the port infrastructure fee for container drop off in the Ho Chi Minh port area from April 1 after being delayed from July 2021. The port area includes the Cat Lai terminal and inland container depots. Strong growth in volumes is expected to continue driven by growth in ocean volumes.

Major Port Update

Major ports update (Vessel waiting time indicator)