Theme: Sustainability
Industry Adoption: ⚫ ⚪ ⚪ ⚪ Early Stage
Impact: ⚫ ⚫ ⚪ Significant

A 2024 Maersk survey shows that decision makers rank Alternative to Fossil Fuel 14th out of the top 15 trends.

The transition to alternative fuels is reshaping logistics, with biofuel technologies such as biodiesel, biogas and bio-methanol, as well as e-fuels such as methanol and ammonia, offering sustainable solutions to decarbonisation. These innovations address pressing challenges such as geopolitical dependencies and global warming, a consequence of rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While biofuels and e-fuels are commercially used, hydrogen and ammonia remain in earlier phases.

Market activity reflects this evolution. Over 10,000 patents have been filed between 2019 and 2023, with approximately 850 groundbreaking innovations – an impressive volume, though the ratio of transformative developments is moderate. Scientific engagement is high, with about 4,500 publications, while C-Suite discussions have declined from 780 mentions in 2022 to 340 in 2024, suggesting a shift from experimental exploration to the early stage of industry adoption. Startup activity remains limited, with just over 10 new ventures since 2015, highlighting significant entry barriers.

Top 15 Trends

Share of Key Decision Makers, who consider the trend to be relevant for their company’s logistics  

Alternative To Fossil Fuel – Relevance by Industry 

Alternative fuels in vehicles and ships significantly reduce GHG emissions and improve operating efficiency. Early adopters can benefit from a competitive advantage. Declining battery prices and technological advances that support decarbonisation could also lead to long-term cost savings, particularly if these technologies offset costs over their lifespan.

What are the opportunities?

Alternative fuels may significantly reduce GHG emissions and improve operational efficiency. Falling battery prices and advances in technologies that support decarbonisation could also lead to long-term cost savings. 

What are the challenges?

Challenges include high initial costs, limited availability and infrastructure, and regulatory hurdles. Many companies remain cautious, waiting for cost parity and broader infrastructure development.  

Sources:

• International Energy Agency: Aviation (2023), International Energy Agency: International Shipping (2023).
• International Energy Agency: Renewable Fuels (2024).
• Survey among 500+ global logistics decision makers across various industries, conducted by Statista for Maersk (Q4 2024).
• In-depth interviews with global industry experts, academia, and futurists.
• Unstructured web sources with more than 10,000 search term permutations using AI.
• Curated data from startup databases, patent databases and analysis tools, as well as Semantic Scholar.